Painting the GOP Primary Map

The GOP has held 15 contests to pick a nominee for President so far. They have taken place in all parts of the country and in more than 1,100 counties. The following shows the winner in each county that has reported (this leaves off Alaska and Minnesota which have not released county caucus results).

County Winner – GOP Primaries and Caucuses (as of 3/2/16)

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Whether you go by geographic size, or by statewide or delegate count. Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have dominated this race. Donald Trump has won nearly every county east of Arkansas. Ted Cruz has dominated in Texas, Oklahoma, and central Iowa. Other than the Minnesota caucuses and in the Northern Virginia suburbs, Marco Rubio has hardly won anywhere. This hasn’t stopped him from a giving a “no one believed in us” speech after coming in third in Iowa or declaring future victory after losing 10 contests last night:

The pundits say we’re underdogs. I’ll accept that. We’ve all been underdogs. This is a community of underdogs. This is a state of underdogs. This is a country of underdogs. But we will win.

He was right that he is an underdog. Looking at the map of who came in second place in each country, you won’t find much green.

County 2nd Choice – GOP Primaries and Caucuses (as of 3/2/16)

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Trump and Cruz have come in first or second in 803 of the 1,061 counties I have data far. He did OK in Virginia, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Charleston, and a few other scattered areas. John Kasich is the consensus second choice in most of New England.

“Tonight is supposed to be Ted Cruz’s night. It’s not going to go as well for him as he had planned.” – Marco Rubio, 3/1/16

The night didn’t go well for Rubio either. GOP voters have pretty much said they want to choose between Trump and Cruz. The career politicians, lobbyists, and media talking heads in Washington DC will have to find someone else to get behind in 2020.