How Can Cruz & Rubio Beat Trump If They Are Losing to Him in Red and Blue Counties?

Republicans have come to vote in 1,061 counties over 13 states (Minnesota and Alaska have not reported by county). More than half have taken place in deep red counties where Obama got less than 35% in 2012.

2012 Obama Vote Number of Counties Share of the Total Vote
35% or less 553 41.3%
35% – 40% 110 9.3%
40% – 45% 98 12.0%
45% – 50% 80 9.9%
50% – 55% 53 7.3%
55% – 60% 65 10.4%
60% – 65% 42 6.0%
65%+ 60 3.8%

Trump has won in both strong Obama counties, strong Romney candidates, and everywhere in between. Ted Cruz does best in the deep red counties but still loses to Trump. He does worse where Obama did better.

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Rubio does worst in the deep red counties. He does better than Cruz in the counties Obama won but still doesn’t beat Trump.

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Kasich also does better in places Obama won.

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Only the combination of Kasich and Rubio beats Trump, but only in the strong Obama counties. Trump beats them in the Romney counties. Good thing for Trump, Kasich plans to stay in the race so he and Rubio can divide support and Trump can win with support in the low 30s like he did in Virginia.

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Any other candidate with the support Trump has in all parts of the country would be declared the nominee and the party would rally around him. Instead we get Willard Romney attacking him.

Best. Campaign. Ever.